Don't Lose Money on Disputed Markets
Track UMA resolution risk on Polymarket in real-time.
Identify high-risk markets before they dispute.
250+
Markets Tracked
10-15%
High Risk
Free
Public Feed
Get Early Access
Join the waitlist for premium alerts when resolution risk changes.
What you'll get:
- Email alerts when markets enter dispute
- Risk score change notifications
- Nearing end date warnings (24h)
Resolution Risk, Simplified
We track UMA resolution data so you don't have to. Focus on trading, not governance.
Risk Scoring
Automated risk score (0-100) based on UMA status, bond/reward ratio, resolution source, and end date.
Dispute Detection
Instant alerts when markets enter UMA dispute. Know before it's too late.
Timeline Tracking
Full resolution history with snapshots. See how risk evolved over time.
How It Works
Three simple steps to avoid disputed markets.
Browse Risk Feed
See all Polymarket markets sorted by resolution risk score.
Filter by Risk
Focus on disputed markets, high-risk (>70), or nearing end date.
Get Alerts
Premium: Receive email/Telegram alerts when risk changes.
Why SignalBoard?
Unique Data
No one else scores UMA resolution risk this comprehensively.
Always Updated
Automatic ingestion every 10 minutes. Real-time risk tracking.
Free Feed
Public risk feed with no signup required. Premium alerts optional.
Trader-Focused
Built for Polymarket traders, not governance nerds.
Understanding Resolution Risk
Everything you need to know about how Polymarket markets resolve and why risk matters.
What is resolution risk?
Resolution risk is the chance that a Polymarket market will dispute, delay, or resolve incorrectly. Disputes happen when someone challenges the proposed outcome—this locks funds and delays payout for days. High-risk markets have vague rules, low bonds, or unclear resolution sources.
How are Polymarket markets resolved?
Markets use UMA's Optimistic Oracle. Anyone can propose an outcome by posting a bond (usually $750). If no one disputes within 2 hours, the market resolves. If disputed, UMA token holders vote on the correct outcome over 2-4 days.
What causes disputes?
Disputes happen when: (1) the outcome is ambiguous or unclear, (2) the resolution source isn't specified, (3) rules were changed after trading started, or (4) someone disagrees with the proposed outcome and posts a counter-bond to challenge it.
How does SignalBoard calculate risk scores?
We score 0-100 based on: UMA status (Pending/Proposed/Disputed), bond amount, resolution source clarity, time until end date, and clarification history. Disputed markets automatically score 70+. Markets with vague sources or low bonds get penalty points.
What do the risk levels mean?
Low (0-40): Safe markets with clear rules and strong bonds. Medium (40-70): Some ambiguity or approaching end date. High (70-100): Disputed, unclear sources, or very low bonds relative to market size.
Why should I care about resolution risk?
If a market disputes, your funds are locked for 2-7 days while UMA voters decide. Worse, if rules were ambiguous, the outcome may not match what you expected—meaning you could lose money even if you were 'right' about the event.
Can I avoid all risk?
No market is 100% risk-free, but you can significantly reduce risk by: (1) avoiding disputed markets, (2) checking that the resolution source is clearly defined, (3) avoiding markets with clarifications issued late, and (4) checking bond amounts.
What's a 'clarification'?
A clarification is a rule update issued after a market is created. Market creators add these when edge cases arise that weren't anticipated. Late clarifications can be risky because traders may not have seen them before trading.
What happens if a market is disputed?
Dispute process: (1) Someone posts a $750 counter-bond. (2) Evidence is debated in UMA Discord for 24-48h. (3) UMA token holders vote over 48h. (4) Winner gets their bond back plus 50% of loser's bond as a bounty. (5) Market resolves based on vote result.
Is the risk feed free?
Yes. The public risk feed is 100% free with no signup required. You can browse all markets, filter by risk level, and see resolution timelines. Premium alerts (email/Telegram) are paid and coming soon.
Want to dive deeper into how UMA resolution works?
Read the Complete Resolution Guide →